Former prime minister John Howard has delivered a blunt message to the Liberal Party as Pauline Hanson’s One Nation continues to challenge Australia’s traditional political order: do not solve the problem by joining forces with One Nation — win the voters back.
Howard’s intervention comes at an extraordinary moment in Australian federal politics.
The latest Newspoll has Labor and One Nation both sitting on 29 per cent primary support, while the Coalition has fallen to just 18 per cent.
For a party that has historically regarded itself as one of Australia’s two natural parties of government, those numbers represent far more than a bad poll.
They show that a large section of the electorate — including voters who may once have automatically supported the Liberal or National parties — is now willing to look elsewhere.
And Pauline Hanson is benefiting.
BACKGROUND: WHY HOWARD IS SPEAKING OUT
The rise of One Nation has created an increasingly difficult strategic question for the Coalition.
Should the Liberals move closer to One Nation in an attempt to consolidate the conservative vote, or should they continue competing directly against Pauline Hanson and try to bring those voters back?
Howard is firmly backing the second option.
The former prime minister has warned against creating a formal Liberal–One Nation alliance and argues that the Liberal Party’s traditional governing partnership should remain with the Nationals.
His message is essentially that the Liberals cannot outsource the job of rebuilding their support.
If Australians have abandoned the party because they believe it no longer represents them, Howard believes the answer is better policies, stronger leadership and a clearer alternative to the government.
It is an important distinction.
Howard is not arguing that the concerns driving people toward One Nation should simply be ignored. Instead, his position is that the Liberals need to understand why those people left and persuade them to return.
WHAT IS CONFIRMED
Opposition Leader Angus Taylor has already categorically ruled out forming a Coalition with One Nation.
Taylor has also publicly attacked parts of One Nation’s economic platform and argued that its policies would damage Australia’s economy.
Howard’s comments therefore reinforce the official position currently being taken by the Liberal leadership.
But rejecting an alliance does not solve the Coalition’s biggest problem.
The voters still have to be won back.
And the latest polling shows just how difficult that task may have become.
NEWSPOLL: ONE NATION LEVEL WITH LABOR
The latest national Newspoll reported:
Labor — 29 per cent
One Nation — 29 per cent
Coalition — 18 per cent
Greens — 14 per cent
The poll was conducted from Monday to Friday with a sample of 1,242 voters.
That leaves One Nation an extraordinary 11 percentage points ahead of the Coalition on primary voting intention.
It also means Labor and the Coalition — the two political forces that have dominated federal government in Australia for generations — have a combined primary vote of only 47 per cent in this poll.
Those figures underline how dramatically the political landscape has shifted.
One Nation is no longer simply sitting on the edge of the political debate picking up a small protest vote.
It is competing for voters who previously formed a crucial part of the Coalition’s electoral base.
WHY ARE VOTERS MOVING?
The reasons Australians move between political parties are rarely identical.
Cost-of-living pressure, immigration, housing, energy policy, government spending, cultural issues and dissatisfaction with the major parties have all become major parts of the political debate.
For the Liberals, however, the challenge is particularly difficult because moving too far in either direction carries risks.
Move considerably to the right and the party may recover some voters from One Nation while losing moderates, younger voters and metropolitan electorates.
Move toward the political centre and it risks allowing One Nation to continue presenting itself as the stronger conservative alternative.
That leaves Angus Taylor attempting to rebuild a broad electoral coalition while Pauline Hanson attacks from the right and Labor remains the government.
Howard appears to believe the solution is not political cooperation with One Nation but political competition.
In other words: beat Hanson by giving voters a better reason to vote Liberal.
WHY THIS MATTERS
For decades, Australian federal politics has largely revolved around a contest between Labor and the Liberal–National Coalition.
The rise of a third political force with primary support approaching 30 per cent would challenge that structure.
Even if One Nation does not ultimately translate its polling numbers directly into lower-house seats, its growing vote can influence preference flows, election strategies, policy positions and which issues dominate national debate.
It can also force the Coalition to spend valuable political resources defending electorates and voter groups it once considered relatively secure.
The question is therefore much bigger than whether the Liberals should form an alliance with Pauline Hanson.
The real question is whether the Coalition can rebuild its own political identity strongly enough to convince millions of dissatisfied voters to return.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
Angus Taylor has already ruled out a formal Coalition with One Nation, meaning the immediate battle will remain one of direct competition.
The Liberals will now need to demonstrate that they can convert policy announcements and criticism of the government into actual voter support.
Improved leadership ratings alone will not be enough if the party’s primary vote remains stuck below One Nation.
Pauline Hanson, meanwhile, has every incentive to continue targeting disaffected Coalition voters.
Every former Liberal voter who decides One Nation better represents their concerns makes the Coalition’s path back to government more difficult.
CONCLUSION
John Howard’s warning goes directly to the biggest strategic problem confronting the modern Liberal Party.
The Liberals can attack One Nation.
They can rule out an alliance.
They can argue that Pauline Hanson’s policies would damage the country.
But ultimately, none of those arguments matter unless voters believe the Liberal Party itself offers something better.
With One Nation sitting at 29 per cent and the Coalition at only 18 per cent in the latest Newspoll, the challenge is no longer theoretical.
A substantial group of Australian voters has already moved.
Now the Liberals have to convince them to come back.
The question is whether John Howard’s strategy can still work — or whether Pauline Hanson’s rise represents a much more permanent change to Australian politics.